Peru's government halted all anchoveta fishing in June 2026, turning a temporary suspension into a full closure by mid-August. The decision followed scientific warnings about a forecast super El Niño, expected to be the strongest since records began in the 1880s.
Over 90 percent of the catch goes into fishmeal and fish oil, and fishmeal prices have reportedly surged to nearly $3,500 a tonne.
Peru is the world's leading fishmeal exporter, so losing its anchoveta catch removes a major protein supply for aquaculture and livestock feed. Buyers will likely turn to soybean meal and other protein substitutes, lifting fishmeal and competing protein prices.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.