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The August 2022 CBOT soybean meal contract converged sharply with physical prices during delivery, settling at $513.90 per short ton, up 22% in two weeks. The futures curve was steeply backwardated, showing that current demand was outpacing supply.
A backwardated curve signals tight nearby supply and encourages buyers to delay purchases. Physical meal prices are the reference for feed costs.
czapp.comWalter CroninAug 9, 2022Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The August contract's delivery-driven convergence to $513.90 (+22% in two weeks) inflated the front-month price, so its expiry and roll to lower deferred contracts plausibly explains a large part of the outsized one-day drop.
