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AHDB published end-season 2021/22 UK cereal balance sheets, showing a wheat residual of 333kt (2% of supply) and a barley residual of 50kt (1%). It attributes the imbalance mainly to a possibly overstated Defra production figure and understated on-farm stocks.
Nov-22 UK feed wheat futures closed at £290.50/t.
The revised UK balance sheet adjusts the starting stocks picture for the 2022/23 season, but the effect on prices is modest.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.