
Analysts polled ahead of the USDA's Friday quarterly stocks report expect September 1 U.S. corn stocks around 1.512 billion bushels, up 22% on the year but still an eight-year low. Soybean stocks are seen near 242 million bushels, down 6% and the lowest September 1 supply since 2016.
Tight old-crop corn and soybean stocks would support futures if the USDA report confirms them, while a surprise above estimates would weigh on prices.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.