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The Brazilian real and Mexican peso are the only major currencies to outperform the US dollar year to date through September 30, gaining 2.9% and 1.7% respectively. Analysts attribute this to strong commodity export performance, wider interest rate differentials and shifting capital flows after the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Higher commodity export earnings support the real and peso, which can affect the dollar cost of Brazilian and Mexican feed and grain imports. The analysis explains currency drivers rather than a new shock.
lseg.comOct 28, 2022After 213 past bearish macro events, USDBRL moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
