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Diesel cash spreads over futures have fallen sharply, from $1.20 above futures on Nov. 9 to about 1.5 cents above, as product moves to the Northeast.
Kerosene remains in very tight supply at record prices, and backwardation persists. Market participants are watching the Russian price cap.
Easing physical spreads suggest retail diesel will keep falling, but tight kerosene supply supports heating fuel prices. The overall implication for diesel is bearish.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.