
EIA's November Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Henry Hub spot gas at $6.09/MMBtu for winter 2022-23, the highest real price since winter 2009-10. The forecast reflects storage 4% below average and higher LNG export demand as Freeport resumes.
A higher US winter gas price raises energy and fertilizer input costs for feed manufacturers, and the official forecast signals sustained upward pressure through the heating season.
After 74 past bullish report events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -4.0% to +11.3%), and +2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.