
PIRSA's Crop and Pasture Report forecasts a record South Australian grain harvest of 12.088 million tonnes, worth a record A$4.4 billion at the farm gate. Canola area rose 31,000 ha to 255,700 ha, largely at the expense of barley, and some quality downgrades from weather damage are expected.
A record state harvest adds to Australian export supply, which is bearish for wheat and barley prices. The shift from barley toward canola reduces barley planting in the state.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.