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India imports nearly all of its potash, and domestic prices rose from $200–220 per tonne before the war to $550–580 after it. Rajasthan holds most of the country's identified potash resources, which are not yet proven reserves.
The state is preparing to auction potash blocks after a consultant's pre-feasibility study.
Domestic potash auctions would add to future supply in India, but production is years away and will not change near-term import dependence. The effect on global prices is minimal.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.