
The European Commission published an overview of Regulation (EU) 2023/1115 on deforestation-free products, which requires that products consumed in the EU do not contribute to deforestation or forest degradation. The rules cover commodities including cattle, wood, cocoa, soy, palm oil, coffee and rubber, and their derived products.
The stated aim is to cut emissions linked to EU consumption by at least 32 million tonnes a year.
Compliance due diligence could shift EU-bound soy and palm oil toward verified supply chains and may tighten availability of non-compliant volumes. The price effect is uncertain because traders may divert non-compliant product to less regulated markets.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 400 past bearish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.