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StoneX analyst Josh Linville reports that urea and UAN nitrogen prices are falling at the manufacturing and retail levels, while anhydrous has not followed. Anhydrous is controlled mainly by two major producers, limiting competition.
Divergent nitrogen pricing means urea and UAN are getting cheaper while anhydrous remains firm, so buyers face a supply-cost tradeoff ahead of spring application.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.