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Morgan Stanley cut its 2023 year-end forecast for the US dollar index to 98. The bank expects dollar weakness to be more pronounced against the euro as fears of a severe economic downturn ease.
A lower dollar forecast implies firmer dollar-denominated commodity prices and cheaper imports for buyers using euro or other non-dollar currencies.
reuters.comJan 16, 2023After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
