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The dollar index rose nearly 30% from early 2021 lows to a September 2022 20-year peak, and is now expected to reverse as the Fed tightening campaign nears its end. Futures price a couple more modest hikes, a terminal rate just under 5% by mid-year, then about half a point of cuts in the second half.
Expectations of a weaker dollar generally support dollar-priced grains, oilseeds and meals, while easing rate pressure lowers financing costs for storage and trade.
reuters.comMike DolanJan 18, 2023After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
