
India may extend its wheat export ban beyond March and continue curbs on non-premium rice to contain domestic prices. Officials project a record 2023-24 wheat crop of 110-111 million tonnes, and an inter-ministerial export decision is due in March.
A continued Indian wheat export ban keeps a large supplier out of the world market, supporting international wheat prices. A record next harvest would, however, reduce the need for restrictions later in the year.
After 182 past bullish policy events, WHEAT moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.