
Australia is on track for a third consecutive record grain harvest, led by a record 26 million tonne crop in Western Australia. Flooding in New South Wales and Victoria has been partly offset by strong yields elsewhere.
National wheat exports are forecast to reach a record 28 million tonnes in 2022-23.
Large exportable supplies from Australia add competition for buyers in Asia and tend to weigh on wheat export prices. Strong demand from Southeast Asia and China limits how far prices fall.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.