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Barchart columnist Darin Newsom argues that Chicago SRW wheat has been bearish for nearly a year, with speculators heavily net short. He notes SRW cash prices of $6.58 and stocks-to-use near 35%, the highest since August 2021, while suggesting long-term turning points may be near.
Large available stocks and carry spreads point to ample wheat supplies and soft prices, which keeps feed wheat competitive against corn. A turn in speculative positioning could still lift wheat prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.