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Australian wheat sowing has started early after above-average April rains in Victoria, southern NSW and WA. Forward prices remain at the top of the historical range, and Chicago SRW futures have fallen to their lowest since January 2021.
Early sowing and a USDA forecast of a seven-year high in US wheat plantings add supply expectations that pressure prices, while forward prices still carry a premium that makes pricing decisions a question for growers.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.