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The DOE/EIA diesel benchmark fell 5.9 cents to $4.018 a gallon on May 1, down about 80 cents from its 2022 peak. The CME ULSD futures curve moved into contango for the first time since August 2021.
A contango signals a looser near-term diesel market, pointing to lower fuel surcharges for feed transport. Weakening futures structure supports further retail declines.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.