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Lean hog futures have trended down since last summer, and the pork cutout has fallen from above $100/cwt in 2021-2022. Belly prices, which drive bacon, have fallen sharply, and bacon retail prices were down 8.9% year over year in April.
Weaker pork cutout and belly values reduce packer and hog demand, pushing hog futures lower. Supply has been steady, so demand is the main factor behind the price decline.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.