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Analysts expect urea prices to stay under downward pressure for the next couple of months ahead of India's RCF tender, where offers are expected below US$300/mt CFR. Middle East prices were quoted at US$280-290 FOB, and freight from Russia has fallen about US$25 per tonne.
Expectations of lower urea prices reduce nitrogen input costs for grain production, a bearish signal for fertilizer-linked costs in corn and wheat supply chains.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.