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DTN reports the 2022-23 hard red winter wheat basis ended below its five-year average, though better than the prior year. USDA had cut 2022 winter wheat output 14% after drought in Kansas and Oklahoma, and seeded HRW area for 2023 is 25.3 million acres, up 10%.
Larger 2023 HRW seedings point to more supply ahead, which tends to weigh on cash and futures prices if weather holds.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.