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An analysis of ad hoc direct payments shows these programs have grown sharply, averaging $17.4 billion a year since 2018 versus $2.3 billion a year in 2010-2013. Ad hoc payments made up 73% of direct payments since 2019, and were projected at $5.9 billion in 2023 after $11.9 billion in 2022.
The piece suggests a possible shift away from these payments.
Changes in ad hoc aid affect farm income and planting decisions, which feed into expected crop supply, but the effect on prices is indirect.
aei.agJun 12, 2023After 1,623 past policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 1,905 past policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,019 past policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
