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Trade group estimates suggest India's wheat harvest may be well below government forecasts, possibly prompting a reinstated export ban. Government estimate was 112.74 million tonnes versus the trade estimate of 101-103 million.
Risk of a renewed Indian export ban would remove a source of supply from world markets and could lift global wheat prices.
After 431 past bullish trade events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.