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The European Commission cut its 2023 EU barley production forecast by 2.4 million tons to 49.7 million tons and lowered domestic use and stocks. USDA also lowered its Australian barley crop forecast to 10 million tons, while Ukrainian barley purchase prices fell to $130-140/t.
Lower EU and Australian barley crops should support prices, but Ukrainian purchase prices falling shows the export market has not yet reacted, limiting upside for barley buyers.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.