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Wheat markets rallied early in the last full July week on dryness and Russian attacks on Ukrainian shipping, with Chicago SRW going limit up for nearly two sessions. Prices then fell Wednesday through Friday as NOAA forecast Midwest rain and US wheat remained uncompetitive internationally.
The EU cut its soft wheat output by 2.5 MMT to 126.4 MMT, and Agritel put France's harvest at 34.8 MMT.
Cuts to EU and French crops tighten European supply, while uncompetitive US prices limit export demand and cap rallies. Buyers should weigh firmer EU crop estimates against weak US export competitiveness.
albertagrains.comJul 31, 2023Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Describes the reversal of the late-July rally: prices fell Wed-Fri on Midwest rain forecasts and uncompetitive US wheat, unwinding the war/dryness premium that drove the 5-day drop.
