
On July 20, India announced an immediate ban on exports of non-basmati rice to calm domestic prices, which had risen more than 30% since October 2022. The ban covers an estimated 75-80% of Indian exports, and India supplies about 40% of global rice exports.
India's ban removes a large share of world rice supply, which is likely to push global rice prices sharply higher and could raise feed and food costs in importing countries. Lower Indian exports would also tighten the rice market for buyers worldwide.
After 168 past bullish policy events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.1%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.