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Sparta reports that USGC supply is filling a European ULSD shortfall after refinery problems cut European output. ARA gasoil stocks reached their lowest level since 2022, and the USGC ULSD differential fell from -7 to -8 cents per gallon over the past week.
Tight European diesel supply pulls US Gulf barrels overseas and draws down US stocks, supporting diesel prices while the US differential narrows.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.