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South Australian barley prices rose sharply after China removed its 80.5% barley tariff on August 4, with old crop up $17/t on the day. Old and new crop reached $315/t and $320/t, up from July lows, while ABARES forecasts SA barley output to fall 35% on drier conditions.
Restored access to China and a forecast sharp drop in SA production support barley prices and narrow the discount to other origins.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.