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Cash HRW wheat in Medford, Oklahoma fell from $8.50 on July 24 to $6.90 by late August. The KC July 2024 futures trade 11 cents above September 2023, and the December contract is only 9 cents above September, which is not enough to cover storage carry.
Weak HRW export sales and a flat-to-minimal futures carry signal limited near-term demand for US hard red winter wheat, pressuring cash prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.