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A Barchart columnist argues the September-December Chicago SRW wheat spread is bearish enough to trigger the CME's maximum commercial storage rate. He says futures spreads better reveal supply and demand than USDA or crop tours.
A bearish spread that triggers storage rate signals heavy commercial supply and reinforces downward pressure on SRW wheat prices, with carry-based storage absorbing surplus.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.