
Peru's anchovy fleet has been tied up in port since early February due to El Niño's impact on the fish resource. The canceled season costs the industry about $1 billion, and fishmeal plants have shut down for the first time in 30 years.
Peru is the largest source of fishmeal, so the shutdown removes a major share of global marine protein supply. Tighter fishmeal supply should lift prices for fishmeal and push feed buyers toward soybean meal and other substitutes.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 67 past bullish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.