
The ECB raised its main interest rates by 25 basis points on September 14, its 10th consecutive hike, taking the deposit rate to a record 4%. It raised its 2023 inflation forecast to 5.6% and signaled that further hikes may not be needed.
Higher euro-zone rates and a hawkish-to-pause signal shift currency flows, which affects the euro and dollar and therefore the relative pricing of dollar-denominated feed commodities.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.