
The USDA announced the August Federal order Class III milk price at $17.19 per hundredweight, up $3.42 from July but $2.91 below a year earlier. The August Class IV price rose to $18.91, and July US milk output was down 0.5% year on year as the cow herd shrank.
A shrinking herd and lower output per cow tighten milk supply and support prices, which can sustain dairy demand for feed. The still-large year-on-year price gap keeps producers under financial strain.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.