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Bloomberg reports that global oil markets face a supply shortfall of more than 3 million barrels a day next quarter, potentially the largest deficit in over a decade. The shortfall is linked to Saudi Arabia's extended output cut.
A deficit of this size would push crude prices higher and raise energy costs across the feed chain. Higher diesel and fertilizer input costs could also feed through to grain prices over time.
bloomberg.comGrant SmithSep 12, 2023After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.
After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 90 past bullish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.9% to +4.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
