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In a podcast, StoneX's Josh Linville says fertilizer prices have retreated from highs that were driven by Russia and China supply issues. He says those issues have subsided but a low-probability, high-impact event could push the market higher again.
The discussion covers weather and supply/demand tables.
Retreating prices lower the near-term cost outlook for fertilizer buyers, but the risk of renewed supply shocks keeps some upside in the market.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.