A weekly outlook notes that November Brazilian IPCA-15 inflation may accelerate slightly, while progress on government economic agendas in Congress could ease fiscal risk perceptions. US economic data may reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates further.
The week was thin on liquidity due to holidays and the real traded within narrow ranges.
Currency moves in the real affect the local cost of Brazilian exports, so a firmer or weaker real can shift export pricing for soybeans, corn and meal at the margin.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.