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Reuters reports that India's rice crop may fall as much as 8% from last year's record after an uneven monsoon, despite a larger planted area. The smaller crop points to prolonged export curbs.
A smaller Indian crop and extended export curbs remove a major supply source from world rice markets, which supports higher export prices for Asian and global rice.
After 168 past bullish policy events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.1%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.