
Excessive rain in southern Brazil and dryness in central and northern areas are slowing soybean and first-crop corn planting for 2023/24. Southern Brazil recorded its third-wettest period since 1979 from October 1 to November 26, and flooding is causing logistics problems for record agricultural exports.
A strong El Niño could persist into 2024.
Planting delays and possible yield losses in Brazil tighten the outlook for soybeans and corn while logistics strain could slow export flows. Both factors support prices for South American supply.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.