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BBVA Research forecasts Peru's economy will contract 0.4% in 2023 due to successive shocks, including El Niño, before growing about 2% in 2024 and 3.5% in 2025. It expects global growth near 3% in 2023 and 2024, a 3% of GDP fiscal deficit, and the sol trading between 3.75 and 3.85 per dollar by year-end.
A weaker economy and El Niño-related shocks in Peru point to lower feed and fishmeal demand and supply constraints in the region, while a softer sol can make Peruvian exports cheaper. The effect on grain and meal prices is modest.
bbvaresearch.comVanessa Belapatiño, Yalina Crispin, Francisco Grippa, Hugo Perea, Manuel Ernesto Saenz ValdezDec 5, 2023Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
