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The Australian dollar has been trading largely on Federal Reserve expectations rather than iron ore, despite iron ore prices rising about 30% since August to around US$130 per tonne. Markets expect the Fed to dominate AUD direction until mid-2024.
Iron ore is Australia's biggest export earner, so a currency that ignores its price rally signals that US rate expectations are the stronger short-term driver of AUD and related dollar-denominated commodity pricing.
afr.comCecile LefortDec 12, 2023Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
