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An analysis of cash market differentials and crack spreads notes East Coast distillate inventories were about 33% below the five-year average at the end of September. It warns that low stocks raise the risk of a winter basis blowout from demand or supply shocks.
Tight distillate stocks raise the risk of diesel price spikes this winter, which would lift farm and feed transport costs.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.