
An analysis examined proposed Federal Milk Marketing Order changes, including higher make allowances, dropping barrel cheese from the protein formula, and updated component factors. Final changes are not expected until 2024.
Higher make allowances would lower Class III and IV prices, while a return to the higher-of Class I mover would slightly raise All-Milk prices, so the net effect on farm milk prices is small.
After 93 past neutral policy events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.6%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.