CoBank's Knowledge Exchange forecasts a solid 2024 for US biofuels, with ethanol margins staying healthy on affordable natural gas and corn prices under pressure from a record harvest. It also expects lower RIN prices to reduce renewable diesel profitability outside California.
Healthy ethanol margins support continued corn grind and soybean crush demand for oil, while weak corn prices favor feed buyers.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 114 past neutral report events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.