
Farm Online reports that ABARES puts the national winter crop at 46.1Mt, 33% below last year's record 67.3Mt but just below the 10-year average. The estimate is well above recent El Niño seasons, with good yields in southern regions.
The crop is smaller than last year but much larger than typical El Niño years, which limits how far prices are likely to rise. Export supply should stay adequate.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.