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Early estimates point to a 1.5% to 3.5% decline in the January 2024 US beef cow herd, based on slaughter data through October. A 10% culling rate through October follows a pattern that has led to herd declines in following years.
A smaller beef cow herd implies reduced calf and feeder supply, supporting higher feeder and live cattle prices in early 2024.
farmprogress.comScott BrownDec 4, 2023After 227 past bullish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.5%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
