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Crédit Agricole strategist David Forrester says the Australian dollar could appreciate about 10% in 2024 as Chinese economic pessimism may be near a peak. He expects the Fed to cut rates sooner and by more than the RBA, while Australian fiscal policy becomes more supportive.
A firmer AUD would reflect improved China sentiment, which supports iron ore and Australian export income. Higher AUD could also make Australian grain exports less competitive on price.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.