
USDA's December Hogs and Pigs report put the December 1 all-hog inventory at 74.97 million head, up 0.88% from the prior quarter and 0.02% from a year earlier. The breeding herd fell 3.3% year on year, more than expected, while pigs per litter hit a record 11.66.
Analysts expect bearish hog price outlook near term.
A larger-than-expected drop in the breeding herd points to tighter hog supply later in 2024, which supports hog prices and feed demand over time, though near-term market hog supplies remain similar to last year.
After 61 past neutral report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.8%), and +2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.