
EU rapeseed supplies for the second half of the 2023/24 season have tightened after record crushings, sharply lower imports and higher exports. EU rapeseed has traded in a narrow US$460-490 range over three months, keeping it at a discount to Canadian canola.
Canola's premium over EU rapeseed in the May position has shrunk to about US$1.
Tighter EU supply and reliance on Australian canola imports for April-June could lift EU rapeseed prices once imports are confirmed, supporting meal and oil values for feed buyers. Price has not yet reflected the tightness, so the upside is still pending.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.