
The International Fertilizer Association's short-term outlook projects 2024 phosphoric acid output up 4% to 88.4 million tonnes and MAP plus DAP up 4% to 66.8 million tonnes. Growth is led by China and Morocco, but output remains below 2020 peaks.
The report also links phosphate sulfur demand to growing nickel HPAL demand.
A modest recovery in phosphate production adds supply that could ease fertilizer prices, though output still trails 2020 levels, leaving phosphate costs firm for feed producers.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 35 past bearish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.