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NAB strategist Rodrigo Catril said he expects the Aussie dollar to rise later in 2024 if the Fed cuts rates as expected. The piece follows the currency's pullback from its end-2023 peak.
A forecast of a firmer Aussie dollar would make Australian grain and barley exports less competitive, while Fed easing would weaken the US dollar and support dollar-priced commodities.
abc.net.auKirsten AikenFeb 6, 2024Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
